Donald J. Trump 2.0 economy as financials dilemma;
Please excuse me for not posting regularly. The basic explanation is
that I do try improve the service and I’m delayed by the server admin. Me
believes come with the actual improvement which in reality become just small
step forward.
In this episode I have
make my interpretation of the knowledge given to me or pas on
me;
Is strong U.S. economic growth possible? Mostly economists agree that
Trump 2.0 financials operation be similar to Trump 1.0 economy. This basically
means low unemployment and high deficit and deflationary polices. While Donald
Trump set in White House Department of Government Efficiency DOGE to cut budget
deficit upon austerity, and this is just government books of the US Treasury
performance not the country or US economy prosperity yet, nor its intention to
growth out of the current quagmire. Donald Trump's ready on day one as January
20th as he's going to hit the ground running and it's going to be a
growth agenda the tariffs are going to be part of that he was the original
tariff man and he did it to raise revenues and to protect American industry.
Donald Trump has added the negotiating leg and I think given Donald Trump's
credibility on tariffs from Trump 1.0 he will hit the ground running on 2.0 and
world leaders and business Executives will know he means business
In finances economist establish rule 70 that allow for them to
measure growth and upon such as we want to growth us out of the quagmire we will
need in the US 17.5% GDP to double investment within four years. Anything below
17.5% of the GDB will require to implement inflation on the anticipated deficit
to cover the Budget expenditure.
Yesterday, Dan Scavino get the idea
to post on Truth Social Media on behalf Donald Trump claim that “The
Experts Are Wrong Again on Trump’s Tariff Agenda” (click on the left image) and then quoting the
bright side of the tariff issue as solution in Trump 2.0 economic agenda. But,
the problem starts with the second side the very same issue as US Dollar
appreciation that is coming with the tariffs. However, the dark side of the
issue goes as follow. External debt has its risks. Since Donald Trump in office,
the dollar's value has increased rapidly a specially on tariffs operation. That
translates into a surcharge on external-debt repayments as high as debt
servicing costs on US dollar, depending on when the debt was issued. In other
words, the foreigner countries as debt holders be paid more in these currencies.
What further means that US Treasury will require to come up with higher deficit
to balance these books because these foreigners' holders simply will not receive
these moneys on maturity date as such be reinvested. Anticipated 1.4 trillion
debt servicing costs on US dollar will rise or
Can we then lower than interest rates at Federal Reserve and boost
the economy upon investment as this has happened at Trump economy
1.0?
And here we go, as Federal Reserve is in no position nor in intention
to reduce further interest rates. The basic reason for that is
the US Federal Reserve System's Consolidated Statement of Condition recorded
total capital of negative -$43.638 billion. Currently it is balanced
by earnings remittances to be paid to the US Treasury. (Nov 20 2024 $210.472
billion) Any lowered interest rate will
reduce that earnings remittances to be paid to the US Treasury and as its
outcome Federal Reserve has to provide on consolidated statement of condition
the negative total capital (-$43.638 billion as of Nov 20 2024) what further
means as a privet company in the US either legally established by 1913 Federal
Reserve act ... including Banking act 1935 and all amendments be forced to file
for voluntary chapter 11 petition in the United States Bankruptcy
Courts.
That means the low interest rates is out. But the Federal Reserve
acting in 2024-2025 nor 2020 as D Trump Tariffs' agenda, and that Tariffs'
agenda will work only if Trump 2.0 administration finds a mechanism that will
devaluate US Dollar by the world demand and upon it US will have grown the
economy. (I can give few from the top of my head) So, we have Scott Bessent none
economist but economy historian who is an investor, what basically means if he
implements any financials program such be well grounded in
memory of the past
and proved working, as it is exactly Donald Trump mind and ideology, but history
doesn't know 36+ trillion National Debt and no liquidity available on the
market. What means with all respect to new Treasury Secretary he be useless.
Then Kevin Hassett a quiet guy with his legs deeply in 2020 US economy rather
than genuine reality now supported by Peter Navarro. (click image to the right) This motto of the past is
"As what you need is to do is come up with policy that will stimulate supply"
We can try to get to foreigner savings as such tread US of America as
colony of lepers. So, the only option that has been left goes with retirements
assets as such can be converted from liquidity to assets upon Reverse REPO
contract. (roughly counting 10 trillion)
By Peter von Roggenhausen December 05 2024
Ps. I'm very sorry for the slow action on posting the news; The
reason as usually if the fund. We so far did not receive any single penny or red
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Oh. Well, as the people saying "Money talks" ... so if we had had the
necessary fund, you will have the right information at the right
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