Is 47-POTUS Donald J Trump administration in liquidity crisis that unfold in a specific economic shock as a feature of a normal business cycle?
Please excuse me for not posting regularly. The basic explanation is that I do try improve the service and I’m delayed by the server admin. Me believes come with the actual improvement which in reality become just small step forward.
In this episode I have
make my interpretation of the knowledge given to me or pas on
me;
Is strong U.S. economic growth possible? Mostly economists agree that Trump 2.0 fanatical operation be similar to Trump 1.0 economy. This basically means low unemployment and high deficit and deflationary polices.
At first glance it looks like we are in liquidity crisis as a
financial situation characterized by a lack of cash or
easily-convertible-to-cash assets on hand across many businesses in US or
financial institutions simultaneously. Under Joe Biden
The “Promises made - promise
kept” agenda is a one thing and ability to do so be the other thing,
therefore.
47-POTUS Donald J Trump administration is strongly loaded by individuals who took oath and setting all things out for progress on 47-POTUS Donald J Trump “Promises made - promise kept” agenda. The White House team as well as Scott Bessent who was sworn in as the 79th Secretary of the Treasury by Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh on January 28, 2025 have got two main goals to follow as anticipate solution of the current US economic stagnation. The first one is implementation of Tariffs, and the second one be drill baby drill as deflating the oil prices. A fall in oil prices should cause a reduction in transport and fuel costs for firms. Consumers who will also benefit from the lower prices of transport and fuel. The lower oil prices will effectively increase their disposable income and enable them to spend more on other goods.
While tariffs generally will shift the US GOV revenue from taxes to tariffs, then create room for lower taxes as reduction in goods and service costs will created not just additional spending power as disposable income among US population but additionally make investment attraction across the US that shall bring additional foreigner liquidity either it will be only the boom part in Boom and Bust economic cycle.
Due to these factors in 2025 we shall observe economic boom as
average bread consumer shall better-off glorifying
The second side of the very same coin reflect more blended image of
the mentioned above liquidity crisis. We
are currently and officially in $36,2 trillion National DEBT. That will require $1.4 trillion as servicing cost during 2025. As of today, we have
liquidity as M1 on the market at $18,4 trillion and such be increased by foreigner investment but
reduce by US National DEBT either auction off or servicing. We still have $3 trillion circa in M2 as reserve that can be implemented if FED’s
decide to set short term loan facility and lend to Federal Reserve on Reverse
REPO contracts either normally the FED’s be in bankruptcy process.
What we do not know so far … is what financials solution 47-POTUS administration will implement. If such decide to raise the DEBT ceiling and further auction-off US Treasury the foreigner investment as new liquidity will simply disappear from the market and vanish in National DEBT as so far, the US GOV never paid its DEBT just refinance it.
Let assume that US Congress oppose any debt ceiling then the period of US market liquidity will be extended few months as the $1.4 trillion servicing cost during 2025 will consume the entire foreigner investments due to lower taxes and oil prices. Either we still have few trillion in M2 as liquidity reserve known as 401K or IRA.
We have to understand that all banks under Federal Reserves as primary dealers do not invest any more in GOV treasury because the mentioned above liquidity crisis. In other words, Joe Biden administration had no debt limit at all till January the first 2025 and struggle to refinance current debt on short term treasure auctioned.
U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson as well as all Senate Finance and Budget Committee working hard on austerity to balance GOV books, but such action generally will not impact on larger scale any liquidity shortage on the market either he and the US Senate intensively think about fueling economic growth.
Currently US Federal Reserve
is $165.280 billion in
the hole owing US Treasury. The growth model was
destroyed and ruin by the greedy bankers before
John Maynard Keynes believed that governments should take central
roles in an economy, intervening during times of economic slowdowns or rapid
growth. While Keynesian theory in its original form is rarely used today, its
radical approach to business cycles and its solutions to depressions have had a
profound impact on the field of economics. These days, many governments use
portions of the theory to smooth out the boom-and-bust cycles of their
economies. Economists combine Keynesian principles with macroeconomics and
monetary policy to determine what course of action to take.
Basically, the above described US debt and its servicing requirements
make business cycles approach as not realistic this days due to bust theory that
is unavoidable.
The well known In finances or economist establish rule 70 that allow for them to
measure growth and upon such as we want to growth US out of the quagmire we will
need in the US 17.5% GDP to double investment within four years. Anything below
17.5% of the GDP (see the image to the right) will require to implement inflation on the anticipated deficit
to cover the Budget expenditure.
Donald Trump intention therefore as Make America Grate Again will require enormous investment then to restore growth. In this case, falling oil prices are not sufficient to increase economic growth because other factors keep growth low. Also, if oil prices fall sufficiently, it can cause some oil firms to go out of business and this causes a rise in bad debts. The crash in oil prices in 2020 is indicative of the economic recession and prices have fallen so far that many oil firms will be forced out of business, causing job losses and falling investment. Even with the loss of growth, the U.S. economy isn’t nearly as tied to the price of oil as some of the other top production nations. The U.S. economy is incredibly diverse. Although oil and gas production has been one driver of recent growth, it is far from the most important sector of the economy. It is, of course, connected to other sectors, and losing growth in one can weaken others, but sectors like manufacturing gain more than they lose.
As Secretary, Mr. Bessent is responsible for the U.S. Treasury’s wide-ranging mission to maintain a strong economy, foster economic growth and create job opportunities for all Americans by promoting the conditions that enable prosperity at home and abroad as well as managing the U.S. Government’s finances. He is also responsible for strengthening U.S. national security by combating economic threats and protecting the financial system. So, more likely he will fail quickly unless Donald Trump as 47-POTUS be able to evaluate his believes on reason and evidence!
Off course we can use the financial leverage as the concept of using borrowed capital as a funding source. Leverage is often used when government invest in themselves for expansions, acquisitions, or other growth methods. Leverage is using debt as capital to undertake an investment or project. It is commonly used to boost an entity's equity base. And to implement this leverage as the concept will require 47-POTUS Donald J Trump to find out no more the 45 minutes to listen and understands as how such shall be implemented since he has $36,2 trillion National DEBT as immediate fund available for him.
The only problem is that
47-POTUS Donald J Trump is isolated and therefore there is no way to implement
such financial leverage as the concept of using borrowed capital as a funding
source.
Also, I can put such solution here in writing, but in that event before event finishing to type it … it will be well known to all world and based on this fact the quick financials solution rather be gone as the very same World do all in these powers to prevent US America and 47-POTUS Donald J Trump administration from any success.
By Peter von Roggenhausen January 30 2025
Ps. I'm very sorry for the slow action on posting the news; The reason as usually if the fund. We so far did not receive any single penny or red cents in donation. This means that our expenses are covered from the fund we have and loan we have obtain. I have heard some rumors about the donation you have made to US but I can ensure you that such never get to US. So, since we do not accept rumors if you have made any donation ask your band as where it get to? Because we have not received it. Or you can send to US a copy of the donation and we will trace it on your behalf.
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